Merv Burak
BASIC NOTES
27 June 2008
Week-End Commentary 27 June 2008
26 June 2008
Merv's Daily Commentary, 26 June 2008
After The Close, 26 June 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 278.63
Hugh: 286.80
Low: 270.75
Close: 278.48
Volume: 6937
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
I’m still not sure when I’ll get back to normal blogging. Things are just not going too well with my brother. Throat cancer, stomach ulcer, heart attack, diabetes, but he keeps on trucking. I should be posting on the week-end and possibly Monday. I can’t predict much beyond there.
Regardless of the market action elsewhere, the uranium stocks did next to nothing by time the day was finished. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index was ahead by 0.88 points or 0.32%. There were 20 winners, 26 losers and 4 unchanged. The five largest stocks were mixed. Cameco gained 2.2%, Denison gained 0.5%, First Uranium lost 4.2%, Paladin lost 1.2% and Uranium One gained 4.1%. The best performer today was Yellowcake Mining with a gain of 21.9% while the worst performer was Energy Fuels with a loss of 9.9%.
Looking at the chart some encouraging signs jump up at you. The most encouraging is the support just above the 250 level. The Index is in the process of bouncing off the support. This has the makings of a bullish double bottom pattern and many speculators have a habit of jumping the gun and getting into the buying mood just as it starts its bounce. In reality, the double bottom does not get confirmed until the Index exceeds its previous top that was made in between the double bottoms. That would require a move to 320 for a reversal confirmation, per the double top technique.
The other encouraging sign is the action of the intermediate term momentum indicator versus the Index action. As the Index dropped to its previous low the momentum remained well above its previous low for a positive divergence sign. I would have preferred a positive divergence with the Index making a new low but we’ll take whatever little encouragement we can get.
As for the normal intermediate term indicators, the Index is below its slightly negative sloping moving average line while the momentum indicator is still in its negative zone but moving higher and is above its positive trigger line. From the normal indicators we are not yet at a positive or bullish rating. The rating is still at a BEARISH level but could change again with a couple of days of good upside action.
On the short term, the Index has climbed back above its moving average line but the line slope is still slightly negative. The short term momentum indicator is very close to its neutral line but still inside its negative zone. It is above its positive sloping trigger line. The rating here is better than the intermediate term but not yet fully bullish. I would rate the short term as + NEUTRAL, one level below a full bull.
As for the immediate term direction of the Index, that is to the up side. The Index is above its very short term moving average line and the line is in a positive slope. The Stochastic Oscillator is roaring higher and just about to enter its overbought level. The only caution is the fact that the very short term moving average line has not quite crossed above the short term moving average line, which would confirm a short term move in progress. It could cross in another day.
For most speculators and investors the time is still not quite ripe for jumping into the uranium stocks again. The price of uranium was unchanged this past week but that is at its low for the past many months. I would expect the stocks to anticipate a change in uranium price direction but that is not yet noticeable.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 278.63
Hugh: 286.80
Low: 270.75
Close: 278.48
Volume: 6937
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
I’m still not sure when I’ll get back to normal blogging. Things are just not going too well with my brother. Throat cancer, stomach ulcer, heart attack, diabetes, but he keeps on trucking. I should be posting on the week-end and possibly Monday. I can’t predict much beyond there.
Regardless of the market action elsewhere, the uranium stocks did next to nothing by time the day was finished. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index was ahead by 0.88 points or 0.32%. There were 20 winners, 26 losers and 4 unchanged. The five largest stocks were mixed. Cameco gained 2.2%, Denison gained 0.5%, First Uranium lost 4.2%, Paladin lost 1.2% and Uranium One gained 4.1%. The best performer today was Yellowcake Mining with a gain of 21.9% while the worst performer was Energy Fuels with a loss of 9.9%.
Looking at the chart some encouraging signs jump up at you. The most encouraging is the support just above the 250 level. The Index is in the process of bouncing off the support. This has the makings of a bullish double bottom pattern and many speculators have a habit of jumping the gun and getting into the buying mood just as it starts its bounce. In reality, the double bottom does not get confirmed until the Index exceeds its previous top that was made in between the double bottoms. That would require a move to 320 for a reversal confirmation, per the double top technique.
The other encouraging sign is the action of the intermediate term momentum indicator versus the Index action. As the Index dropped to its previous low the momentum remained well above its previous low for a positive divergence sign. I would have preferred a positive divergence with the Index making a new low but we’ll take whatever little encouragement we can get.
As for the normal intermediate term indicators, the Index is below its slightly negative sloping moving average line while the momentum indicator is still in its negative zone but moving higher and is above its positive trigger line. From the normal indicators we are not yet at a positive or bullish rating. The rating is still at a BEARISH level but could change again with a couple of days of good upside action.
On the short term, the Index has climbed back above its moving average line but the line slope is still slightly negative. The short term momentum indicator is very close to its neutral line but still inside its negative zone. It is above its positive sloping trigger line. The rating here is better than the intermediate term but not yet fully bullish. I would rate the short term as + NEUTRAL, one level below a full bull.
As for the immediate term direction of the Index, that is to the up side. The Index is above its very short term moving average line and the line is in a positive slope. The Stochastic Oscillator is roaring higher and just about to enter its overbought level. The only caution is the fact that the very short term moving average line has not quite crossed above the short term moving average line, which would confirm a short term move in progress. It could cross in another day.
For most speculators and investors the time is still not quite ripe for jumping into the uranium stocks again. The price of uranium was unchanged this past week but that is at its low for the past many months. I would expect the stocks to anticipate a change in uranium price direction but that is not yet noticeable.
22 June 2008
Weekly Commentary
No Commentary at this time.
The situation in the family is very fluid at this time (brother went into intensive care last night) and time does not permit a decent week-end commentary. I'll see how time goes and maybe I will be able to get something posted this evening.
Just a quick comment, after Friday's drop everything is still BEARISH. However, it may be that the Daily Index has hit a support. More on this as time permits.
Merv Burak
The situation in the family is very fluid at this time (brother went into intensive care last night) and time does not permit a decent week-end commentary. I'll see how time goes and maybe I will be able to get something posted this evening.
Just a quick comment, after Friday's drop everything is still BEARISH. However, it may be that the Daily Index has hit a support. More on this as time permits.
Merv Burak
21 June 2008
19 June 2008
Merv's Daily Commentary, 19 June 2008
After The Close, 19 June 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 274.46
High: 279.06
Low: 265.75
Close: 271.52
Volume: 4056
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Back in February we had a month of minor Index changes, on the up side. Now we almost have a month of minor Index changes, on the down side. In February the result was a turn around in the Index to lower levels. This time we should see a turn around to higher levels (all fingers being crossed). But it’s a waiting game, which gets frustrating.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down for the fourth day in a row. The decline was, as it has been for some time now, minor in nature. The cumulative effect so far has not been that drastic even though some individual stocks have seen significant declines. The Index was lower by 2.45 points or 0.90%. There were 13 winners, 31 losers and 6 going nowhere. Cameco lost 0.8%, Denison lost 0.2%, First Uranium gained 0.3%, Paladin gained 4.9% and Uranium One lost 2.1%. The best daily gainer was Xemplar Energy with a gain of 16.5% while the worst daily performer was East Asia Minerals with a loss of 17.8%.
Nothing has changed in the indicators for the intermediate or short term. Readers can go to yesterday’s commentary and it would be the same today. BOTH time periods are still rated as BEARISH.
The only additional comment I might make today is to highlight the fact that the past few weeks of daily activity has been trapped inside a downward sloping channel and as long as it remains trapped in such channel the direction of least resistance will continue to be downward. The other brief comment is relative to the Stochastic Oscillator. The oscillator has now turned downward BUT is still slightly above its positive sloping trigger line. All this continues to take place in its negative zone. The immediate term direction continues to be downward until a reversal is indicators takes place.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 274.46
High: 279.06
Low: 265.75
Close: 271.52
Volume: 4056
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Back in February we had a month of minor Index changes, on the up side. Now we almost have a month of minor Index changes, on the down side. In February the result was a turn around in the Index to lower levels. This time we should see a turn around to higher levels (all fingers being crossed). But it’s a waiting game, which gets frustrating.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down for the fourth day in a row. The decline was, as it has been for some time now, minor in nature. The cumulative effect so far has not been that drastic even though some individual stocks have seen significant declines. The Index was lower by 2.45 points or 0.90%. There were 13 winners, 31 losers and 6 going nowhere. Cameco lost 0.8%, Denison lost 0.2%, First Uranium gained 0.3%, Paladin gained 4.9% and Uranium One lost 2.1%. The best daily gainer was Xemplar Energy with a gain of 16.5% while the worst daily performer was East Asia Minerals with a loss of 17.8%.
Nothing has changed in the indicators for the intermediate or short term. Readers can go to yesterday’s commentary and it would be the same today. BOTH time periods are still rated as BEARISH.
The only additional comment I might make today is to highlight the fact that the past few weeks of daily activity has been trapped inside a downward sloping channel and as long as it remains trapped in such channel the direction of least resistance will continue to be downward. The other brief comment is relative to the Stochastic Oscillator. The oscillator has now turned downward BUT is still slightly above its positive sloping trigger line. All this continues to take place in its negative zone. The immediate term direction continues to be downward until a reversal is indicators takes place.
18 June 2008
Merv's Daily Commentary, 18 June 2008
After The Close, 18 June 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 277.56
Hugh: 281.81
Low: 267.86
Close: 273.98
Volume: 4520
Volume: 4520
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, the slow but steady decline continues. As yet it has not gotten into new low territory but bit by bit it will get there, although we all hope not. The latest price posted by The Ux Consulting Company, LLC (see Uranium Link section) has uranium down another $2.00 to $57.00. The trend to lower uranium prices just does not seem to end. An article in Canada’s Financial Post was not all that cheerful for uranium investors. What I’d like to see is a front page headline that uranium is in the dumper and in a serious bear market, that would then be the signal for the end of the uranium bear. Front page headlines or cover stories in major magazines have that reverse effect.
Today the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 1.86 points or 0.67%. There were 15 winners, 30 losers and 5 unchanged. Of the 5 largest stocks 2 were winners and 3 were losers. Cameco lost 0.2%, Denison lost 2.2%, First Uranium lost 0.7%, Paladin gained 4.8% and Uranium One gained 0.5%. The best daily winner was East Asia Minerals with a gain of 14.4% while the worst daily loser was Uranium Resources with a loss of 7.6%.
On the intermediate term things just keep drifting slowly further into the negative. The Index continues to move lower below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator continues its move lower into its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is also starting to get negative. It is below its activity over the past few weeks and has moved below its intermediate term trigger line. The trigger itself has turned to the down side today. All in all the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
When you start with a bearish rating and everything continues to move lower what you still have is a bearish rating. That’s where we are with the short term. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator continues in its negative zone, below its negative trigger line. The indicator is not far from its oversold line so we just might be in for some relaxation of the steady downward drift. At this point it does not yet mean a reversal ahead but it might be getting close to giving us such indication. For now BEARISH is the only rating possible for the short term.
The more aggressive momentum indicator, the Stochastic Oscillator, is interesting. Five days ago it started a bounce off its oversold line. It has continued to move higher off the line and for the past four days has remained above its now positive sloping trigger line. The immediate momentum of the price action suggests underlying strength that is not shown in the price action, except for the fact that the daily close continues to be closer to the daily mid point of the trading range and not necessarily a very bearish sign. I must still continue to view the immediate direction of the Index as negative but one should be prepared for a reversal of some sort ahead.
17 June 2008
TUESDAY 17 JUNE 2008
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
I will be on the road again today so there will be no post. The next post will be "After the Close, Wednesday 18 June 2008".
Merv Burak
I will be on the road again today so there will be no post. The next post will be "After the Close, Wednesday 18 June 2008".
Merv Burak
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