BASIC NOTES

Uranium Companies

There are very few pure uranium companies. Most companies, especially the small exploration type, are active in more than the uranium industry. This blog makes no attempt to guage the percentage of a companies activity that are related to the finding, mining or processing of uraniun. They all do, however, have some uranium activities (to the best of our review).

Merv's Uranium Indices

I have developed two Uranium Indices. They each have the same component stocks but are calculated using different methodologies. My weekly Index is based upon the average weekly performance of the component stocks. My daily Index is based upon the daily average of the component stocks open, high, low and close prices along with the daily average volume of all component stocks.

Click on the chart or table to enlage the view.



22 January 2012

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 22 Jan 2012



Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 20 January 2012

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 20 Jan 2012

Open: 155.10
High: 156.83
Low: 152.06
Close: 154.62
Volume: 5002

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Maybe I should stop posting all together. No sooner did I decide to retire and only post occasionally the uranium stocks decided to take off on a good old fashioned bull run. Since the low just after Christmas (on Dec 28th) the Daily Uranium Index has advanced almost 26% to the Friday close. Most of that advance has been in the past two weeks with a 7% rise the previous week and a 12% rise this week. The Weekly Index gained 36.9% during this same period. Gee – if I stay retired maybe we will see another 100% move very soon? As they say, timing is everything.

Although it has been a few weeks since the last post let’s pretend that we never left and go right into the normal week-end routine. As most readers already understand, the two Indices tell us a very similar story but from two different aspects. The Weekly Index focuses on the performance of the low priced (speculative) stocks while the Daily Index focuses on the high priced (quality) stocks. Although their performances are similar there are some subtle differences, which I will try to remember to highlight as I go through the routine.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a daily decline of 0.65 points or 0.42%. There were 18 daily winners, 27 losers and 5 stocks hiding somewhere in the bushes. Cameco gained 0.3% on the day, Denison gained 3.2%, Paladin lost 2.6%, Uranium One lost 2.5% and Uranium Participation gained 0.5%. The best daily winner was Vena with a gain of 19.0% while the loser of the day was Uracan with a loss of 15.0%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.2% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.8%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 839.66 points or 18.3% (the Daily Index rose 11.9% on the week). As we see it has been the speculative stocks that have really been moving lately. There were 49 weekly winners, zero weekly losers and one stock hiding somewhere. Cameco gained 12.8% during the week, Denison gained 21.7%, Paladin gained 20.4%, Uranium One gained 17.3% and Uranium Participation gained 5.6%. The best weekly winner was Vena with a weekly gain of 86.5% while the worst weekly performer was East Asia which closed the week with a zero gain or loss. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 7.5% and Global X Uranium ETF gained 13.5%.

LONG TERM

Looking at the long term (weekly) charts we see a slight difference in the performance of the two Indices. The Daily Index had shown greater weakness than the Weekly Index by moving below its previous 2010 low while the Weekly Index made a valid double bottom versus its 2010 low. Usually one would call a double bottom a valid one when the Index moves above its high level in between the two lows BUT that high is so far away that one may take this as an exceptional exception to the rule.

Trend: Both Indices have moved above their long term moving average lines but only the Weekly Index moving average line has already turned to the up side. The Daily Index long term moving average line is in its turning process but not quite there yet.

Strength: The long term momentum indicators for both Indices are on the rise but closed the week just below their neutral levels still slightly in the negative zones. Both indicators are, however, above their respective positive sloping trigger lines.

Volume: The Daily Index volume indicator (I have no volume for the Weekly Index) is now at a four month high and above its positive sloping trigger line.

Putting all that together I just can’t quite get a full bullish rating yet for the long term. The resulting ratings for both Indices is a + NEUTRAL rating, one level below a full bull.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Both Indices have provided us with an intermediate term double bottom pattern (early Oct versus late Dec), however, only the Weekly Index has confirmed the pattern by moving above its high in late Oct. That double bottom projects the Weekly Index to the 6040 level, which is not that far away.

Trend: We see on a previously posted chart that the Daily Index made a very nice break above its intermediate term down trend line (which was also the upper resistance line in a downward sloping channel). The Daily Index is also above its positive sloping intermediate term moving average line.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator has now moved into its positive zone and remains above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The volume indicator continues to show strength and is above its positive sloping trigger line.

On the Intermediate term the rating is now BULLISH. This is further confirmed by the short term moving average line moving above the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

The short term move has been pretty strong this time, stronger than the move in October. The question is “will it last?). I’ll try to answer that question at the end of this commentary.

Trend: The Daily Index is above its positive sloping short term moving average line. The recent trend has been very strong and one can expect some rest period ahead.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator has been on the rise for three weeks now and had entered its overbought zone the other day. It seemed to have reversed direction and closed on Friday just a hair below its overbought line. However, it is still above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action has finally started to show some life recently. One lesson in volume analysis has to do with the increase in volume during a price advance. It is bullish when volume is increasing as the advance in price is taking place. However, one thing to watch out for is heavy relative volume action after the price has gone through a significant advance. Such heavy volume suggests that the advance is about to stall. This is what we are seeing here in the volume action this past week. The stall may be temporary or longer term, no one can tell at this point but a stall of some sort is about to happen.

For now the short term rating remains BULLISH, confirmed by the very short term moving average line remaining above the short term line.

WHAT TO DO?

It looks like we may be at an early period of a new bull market in uranium stocks. The operative word here is “looks like”. This is the time that one can make the greatest profits in stocks but at the same time it is the most risky time to be jumping in. We get several bottoms and starts of new bull moves before we finally get the real one. Is this the real one or just one of many false starts? One cannot really tell so you make your choices and takes your chances. If you should decide to jump in at this time then be sure you have an aggressive exit strategy just in case this is a false start. Holding stock that is not moving, or worse, that is moving lower is not the way to capital gains. It’s better to be holding the cash waiting for the right move and possibly losing a little potential profit in exchange for lower risk. You know your own investment or speculative criteria.

20 January 2012

Merv's Daily Uranium Index 20 Jan 2012


Things seem to be finally looking better for uranium stocks. Maybe I will post a normal week-end commentary and charts this week-end. Stay tuned.

Merv

19 January 2012

TEMPORARY HIATUS

This is a difficult post for me. Over the past few years I have had the privilege of posting comments and analysis relative to the technical market activities of North American uranium stocks. Unfortunately, things have come into focus recently that cause me to hang up the shingles and finally, after over 45 years following the markets, retire and take some relaxation time with the family. I had previously packed up my Aerospace Consulting business and now am packing up the market guru business.

This is not the end. I hope in some manner to continue commentaries and stock analysis but not on any kind of regular basis. Where I am going with this end of my activities I don’t know at this time but I thought I should let my uranium followers know that regular posting is not in the cards for the future.

I expect to be keeping my Uranium Indices and Weekly Tables up to date for the foreseeable future and may make some use of them from time to time.

My thanks and appreciation to all those who have followed my commentaries and to the many who have provided favorable (and occasionally, unfavorable) comments on the postings.


Merv Burak

18 December 2011

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 18 Dec 2011



Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 16 December 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 16 Dec 2011

Open: 127.83
High: 130.67
Low: 125.76
Close: 127.53
Volume: 5115

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Well, it’s not a total disaster yet. The Daily Index remains above its previous Oct low of 118 so I guess that’s a good thing. The action also remains within that downward sloping channel shown here a couple of weeks back. I hope that the Index will not move to the lower support line as that requires a move to the 2008 low of 90 so, one suspects that eventually the breaking of the upper resistance line is the most likely direction once the Index wants to get out of the channel.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a daily loss of 0.27 points or 0.21%. There were 15 daily winners, 23 losers and 12 stocks needing a blood transfusion. Cameco lost 0.6%, Denison gained 2.9%, Paladin lost 3.7%, Uranium One gained 0.9% and Uranium Participation gained 0.7%. The best daily winner was East Asia with a gain of 17.8% while the loser of the day was Pitchstone with a loss of 15.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.4% while Global X Uranium ETF needed a transfusion.

As for the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 343.21 points or 7.92% (the Daily lost 6.05% on the week). There were only 3 weekly winners, 44 losers and 3 stocks needing a transfusion. Cameco lost 5.5%, Denison lost 3.4%, Paladin lost 9.9%, Uranium One lost 10.0% and Uranium Participation lost 3.5%. The best weekly winner was Formation Metals with a weekly gain of 7.7% while the loser of the bunch was East Asia with a weekly loss of 27.4% just edging out Virginia Energy which lost 27.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 5.8% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 6.8%.

LONG TERM

Suffice it to say that there is still nothing good to say about the long term indicators or ratings. Both the Daily and Weekly Uranium Indices are still rated as BEARISH at the Friday close.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index continues to trade below its negatively sloping intermediate term moving average line.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains below its neutral line and below its negatively sloping trigger line. There is a very slight potential positive divergence in the indicator to give us some grasp at good news. We’ll see if anything comes off it.

Volume: The volume indicator continues to confirm the price action by closing below recent lows and below its negative sloping trigger line.

For the intermediate term the rating, at the Friday close, remains BEARISH. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The short term isn’t any brighter than the other periods. The past week’s action remained below the short term moving average line and the line slope remains pointing downward.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Here, that slight positive divergence is a little more noticeable so maybe a rally or something is in store just ahead.

Volume: The daily volume action remains low with the highest volume in several weeks was on Friday, a down day for the Daily Index.

At the Friday close the short term rating remains BEARISH. This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line.

Do I dare guess what the immediate future holds? Here goes, I am looking for some upside action ahead. The Stochastic Oscillator is in its oversold zone and has leveled off, hopefully in preparation for some upside move.

The Christmas season is upon us and I am taking some time off. I don’t expect to be posting for the next couple of weeks, but who knows? If something really interesting should happen and I happen to be watching the news, maybe I might post but in the mean time I will be relaxing.

Here’s wishing all a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS and a profitable NEW YEAR.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 18 Dec 2011







Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 18 Dec 2011



11 December 2011

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 11 Dec 2011



Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 9 December 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 9 Dec 2011

Open: 133.76
High: 136.83
Low: 132.78
Close: 135.74
Volume: 2302

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

It could get very frustrating waiting for the next bull market in uranium stocks to get started. I thought I’d see where we have been with these stocks and try to see if we can assess what the future potential could be. My Weekly Index started in Jan 3 of 2003 so that is the furthest back I can go.

From the start of the Weekly Index to its all time high in early 2007 the Index gained 13,510% (yes, there is no period in that number). The 2007/2008 bear market took this Index down 87%. We then had an elongated bull move to the early 2011 high of 517% followed by another bear of 63%, where we are today. Boy, what a roller coaster. Although we are still 130% ahead of the 2008 low we still need another 235% move from here to get back to our previous high. Of course this is an average figure of all the 50 component stocks so many will still do much better while a few will not do as well. The ones not doing as well will probably be the biggies while the more speculative stocks will out perform.

So much for today’s space filler.

Getting back to what’s happening. Last week I showed a couple of charts showing the down trending channel that the Daily Index is trapped inside and the potential reverse head and shoulder pattern developing. Today we see another pattern. This is one of my Merv’s FAN Principle patterns. This one I call the Bullish Decelerating FAN Lines. It’s bullish because the completion of the pattern results in a new bull market. It’s decelerating because the move to lower levels is looking less and less likely as the pattern progresses. The simple criteria for THIS pattern (I have slightly different criteria for other FAN Principle patterns). The breaking of the first FAN trend line means nothing. The breaking of the second FAN trend line suggests the end of the bear trend and the beginning of the bull move. The breaking of the third FAN trend line is confirmation of the new bull move. At the present time we have the second FAN trend line broken while the third is yet to come. So, according to this pattern we are in a new bull market BUT not yet fully confirmed.

Hey, it’s always great to have some good news.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a gain of 2.60 points or 1.95%. There were 26 daily winners, 13 losers and 11 stocks just twirling their fingers. Cameco gained 2.1%, Denison gained 2.1%, Paladin gained 2.4%, Uranium One lost 0.4% and Uranium Participation was just sitting there twirling its fingers and whistling in the wind. The best daily winner was Crosshair with a daily gain of 16.7% while the loser of the day was Pitchstone with a loss of 4.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 2.1% as did Global X Uranium ETF.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 127.39 points or 2.86% (the Daily lost 1.67% on the week). As we see the speculative stocks took the bigger weekly hit this past week. There were 12 weekly winners, 32 weekly losers and 6 stocks sitting there twirling their fingers and whistling in the wind. Cameco lost 3.0% on the week, Denison lost 2.0%, Paladin broke even, Uranium One gained 1.7% and Uranium Participation gained 0.2%. The best weekly winner was #308 Corp. with a gain of 21.2% while the loser of the week was Wealth Minerals with a loss of 17.1%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.3% on the week while Global X Uranium ETF lost 0.8%.

LONG TERM

Nothing much has changed from the long term perspective. Although it looks like the Indices and momentum indicators are in a stabilizing mode it will still take some more time before we can expect any long term upgrade in their performances. So, from a long term stand point I wouldn’t go into the details but say that for both Indices the long term rating, at the Friday close, remains BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Although there is very little change in the intermediate term indicators things are getting close so let’s see where we are.

Trend: The Daily Index is trading just below its intermediate term moving average line and the line slope continues to the down side although the slope is getting less and less negative.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator continues to strengthen but still remains in its negative zone. It is, however, once more above its trigger line and the trigger is pointing upwards.

Volume:
The volume indicator continues to move in a basic lateral direction but has now crossed above its trigger line and the trigger has turned to the up side.

Despite the positive volume indicator we still get a BEARISH rating at the Friday close. This rating is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The Friday close was just above the short term moving average line with the line slope turning upwards.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator remains just below its neutral line in its negative zone and just below its negative sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action continues to be low suggesting that the major speculators are not yet enamored with the uranium stocks.

We need just a little more strength in the momentum indicator before we can go bullish. For now the short term rating, at the Friday close, is + NEUTRAL. The very short term moving average line remains above the short term line suggesting that maybe the bull is only another day away.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, it looks like the pressure is towards the up side with the Friday action ending upward and the Stochastic Oscillator turning towards the up side, although not fully yet.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 11 Dec 2011







Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 11 Dec 2011