Merv's Daily Commentary 09 July 2009

After The Close, 09 July 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 157.26
High: 162.22
Low: 155.15
Close: 159.13
Volume: 4752


Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

It’s been a while since I’ve written a commentary and things have happened during that time. Let’s get right to the daily action and what the charts and indicators are telling us.

We are most definitely into a bearish intermediate term trend although not yet a long term one. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index has been having a rough time over the past several days but today closed on the up side, not that much but still a plus. The Index advanced 3.43 points or 2.20%. There were 30 winners on the day, 16 losers and 4 undecided. The five largest stocks were all in the winner’s circle. Cameco gained 1.3%, First Uranium gained 6.0%, Paladin gained 4.4%, Uranium One (one the TSX most active today) gained 7.1% and USEC gained 0.4%. The best winner of the day was UEX Corp with a gain of 12.4% while the loser of the day was Alberta Star with only a 6.3% loss.

Since my last commentary the intermediate term trend had broken down. The Index is below its negative sloping moving average line and has broken below recent support. There is a good support zone in the 140 to 150 area so let’s hope this holds. The momentum indicator had also finally broken below its neutral line and is in its negative zone. It is also below its negative trigger line. Even more troubling is the break of the volume indicator below its trigger line, which has also turned downwards. For now the only rating I can give the intermediate term is a BEARISH rating.

The short term continues to be negative. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. It is bouncing off its oversold line but is still quite weak. The daily volume action continues weak which is not unusual during a down move. Lastly, the very short term moving average line remains below the short term line, where it’s been since mid June. The only rating I can give for the short term is the BEARISH rating.

The immediate direction of least resistance seems to have changed for the better. The Stochastic Oscillator, which had been in its oversold zone, has now moved above its oversold line and above its trigger. It seems to be suggesting some more upside ahead. I’ll go with that assessment.

Merv's Weekly Commentary

The Week was basically at a stand still and nothing much has happened. Unfortunately, I will be unable to provide my usual weekly commentary and hope that next week I can get back on track. There will, however, still be a few more days of limited commentary.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table, 05 July 2009

Merv's Daily Commentary 02 July 2009

After The Close, 02 July 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 171.81
High: 175.49
Low: 167.71
Close: 171.32
Volume: 2884


Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

There was no Index yesterday as the Canadian Exchanges, where most of the component stocks are traded, was closed for the National Holiday. Today, the Index was down for the third day but as before, only by a small amount. These small declines could start to add up.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 1.08 points or 0.62%. There were 17 daily winners, 30 daily losers and 3 undecided. The five largest stocks were basically negative but as with the Index, only by a little. Cameco lost 0.9%, First Uranium lost 0.3%, Paladin lost 1.3%, Uranium One was the only winner of the five but only gained 0.8% and USEC lost 1.9%. The best winner was Xemplar Energy with a gain of 16.1% while the loser of the day was Bannerman with a loss of 10.0%.

There are some minor changes going on in the indicators. The daily Index continues its downward move below its negative sloping intermediate term moving average line. The momentum indicator is still in the positive zone but has moved below its negative sloping trigger line. The effects of the recent negative market moves are starting to show on the volume indicator. It is still positive but has moved below its positive sloping trigger line. All in all, the intermediate term is rated as NEUTRAL.

The Index closed below a negative sloping short term moving average line. The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and has once more dropped below its trigger line. However, the trigger is still sloping upwards. The daily volume action remains very low, which is a normal occurrence during a down move. The short term rating remains BEARISH.

I’m sticking with the lateral as the direction of least resistance for now.

Merv's Daily Uranium Index Table (daily version)

Daily Uranium Table

As explained in the past, the Daily Uranium Table uses daily data to develop the information and ratings as opposed to the Weekly Table which uses Friday closing prices only. I consider this Daily Table the more useful as the short term information and rating is more accurate than the Weekly short term info.

Most stocks are still long term BULLISH. We are waiting for the market to turn to get in on the next bull move. The best way to guess when that is just starting to happen is to wait for the short term moving average line to turn upwards. Confirmation of a new move would come with the short term moving average crossing the intermediate term to the up side.
Just some simple hints. You should access some site that provides charts to stay on top daily with stocks that you might be interested in. I will not be posting this table every day.

Merv's Daily Commentary 30 June 2009

After The Close, 30 June 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 174.24
High: 177.58
Low: 168.76
Close: 172.40
Volume: 5236


Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

The Daily Index was down 3.16 points or 1.8%. This has changed only the short term indicators and rating. The Daily Index closed below its negative short term moving average line. All else remained the same. The short term rating is back to a full BEARISH rating. The intermediate term rating remains as a NEUTRAL rating.

Merv's Daily Commentary 29 June 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 176.48
High: 179.56
Low: 171.86
Close: 175.56
Volume: 3883


Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

The next couple of weeks posting will be somewhat sporadic. It’s that time of year for B-B-Q, beer and relaxation, and visiting relatives. I will try to post most days, and especially if there is some serious action.

Today, the action was not all that significant so the posting will be brief. My most popular commenter, Anonymous, asked about the AROON indicator. I had never heard of it but did some brief checking. The indicator is shown today in what I refer to as an intermediate term indicator. By changing the time period in the calculation of the indicators one can develop it for any time period, not unlike the RSI. No use going into details here, you can check it out on several sites just by googling AROON. This seems to be a battle between good and bad and a simple way of looking at it is when the two cross. When the good (green) crosses the bad (red) to the up side, that’s positive on the intermediate term. When the good crosses the bad to the down side, that negative. There is more to this indicator but I’ll leave it for you to look it up if you are interested. I’ll stick with the RSI.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by just a little. It was down 1.32 points or 0.75%. There were 14 winners, 28 losers and 8 going nowhere. Cameco gained 0.5%, First Uranium lost 0.7%, Paladin gained 1.6%, Uranium One went nowhere and USEC gained 0.6%. The best winner on the day was Xemplar Energy with a gain of 14.0% while the loser on the day was Alberta Star with a loss of 13.3%.

The intermediate term has had some reversals lately. That’s what happens when the Index and indicators come too close top each other. The Daily Index dropped below its moving average line once more although the line slope continues to the up side. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone and above its still negative sloping trigger line. The volume indicator continues to perform well and remains above its positive trigger line. The intermediate term rating has been down graded today to a NEUTRAL rating.

Using a short term period for the AROON indicator, it seems to have given pretty decent signals from the short term stand point. As for the normal indicators, the short term indicators remain unchanged from the week-end, therefore the rating remains the same at a + NEUTRAL rating.

I’ll go with the lateral for another day as far as the immediate direction of least resistance.

Merv's Weekly Commentary 28 June 2009

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 26 June 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 26 June 2009

Open: 174.42
Hugh: 179.34
Low: 170.60
Close: 176.89
Volume: 6640

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

The first half of the week was not so great but the last half was okay. The Daily Index has once more entered the area previously known as the “box” but because of the recent drop below the box support it no longer is a box. Over the past month the Index has established a short term resistance at the 180 level. We are butting up right against that level and the Index should breach it shortly, or else more bad news ahead. Uranium price has been in a real good rally mode over the past few months and is making new recovery highs. It still has a dollar or two to go before it breaches its previous high from last November but is getting there.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed the week on an up note. It gained 2.39 points or 1.37% on Friday. There were 23 winners, 22 losers and 5 going nowhere at the daily close for an almost neutral day as far as winners and losers were concerned. The five largest stocks were mixed on the day but with only minor moves. Cameco gained 1.1%, First Uranium lost 0.2%, Paladin gained 0.7%, Uranium One gained 1.1% and USEC lost 0.4%. The best winner of the day was Uranerz Energy with a gain of 39.2% while the loser of the day was Uranium Resources with a loss of only 4.8%.

As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week with a weekly loss of 96.60 points or 1.81%. There were 17 weekly winners, 29 losers and 4 going nowhere. The five largest stocks were mixed for the weekly performances. Cameco gained 2.9% on the week, First Uranium lost 11.2% on the week, Paladin gained 7.5%, Uranium One lost 4.1% and USEC gained 3.3% on the week. The best weekly winner was Uranerz Energy with a weekly gain of 36.5%, thanks to the Friday move, while the worst weekly loser was Rockgate Capital with a weekly loss of 17.9%.

We are really having a difference of opinion as far as the long term indicators are concerned. Using the Weekly Index, the Index just dropped below its long term moving average line and the line slope has just about turned to the down side. Using the Daily Index, the Index is still comfortably above its long term moving average line and the line slope is still quite positive. As for the momentum indicators, they are also not in total agreement with each other. The weekly momentum indicator is still above its neutral line in the positive zone but below its negative trigger line. The Daily Index momentum indicator continues to track a lateral path below its neutral line in the negative zone but just above its still negative trigger line. As explained in the past, the difference is in the fact that the Weekly Index favors the low priced stocks while the Daily Index favors the high priced stocks. The lower priced stocks are therefore harder hit on the down side BUT should be better performers once the Index starts its next real climb. For this week I will give two separate long term ratings. As it applies to the lower priced stocks the long term rating has dropped to a – NEUTRAL rating, one notch above a full bear. For the high priced stocks the long term rating remains as BULLISH.

On the intermediate term I go totally to the Daily Index. The Daily Index is once more above its moving average line and the line slope continues in an upward path. The momentum indicator is moving higher in its positive zone and has crossed above its trigger line although the trigger is still sloping downward. The volume indicator continues to move higher above its positive trigger line but has not quite reached its previous all time high yet. All in all, the intermediate term rating is back to a full BULLISH rating.

On the short term the Index has crossed above its moving average line but the line slope is still to the down side. The momentum indicator remains just below its neutral line in the negative zone but above its positive trigger line. As for the daily volume action, it continues lower than I would like to see, but as mentioned the other day, it may be due to the holiday season. All in all, the short term rating is considered as + NEUTRAL rating, one level below a full bull.

As for guessing what the immediate direction of least resistance is, I’m continuing with the lateral for another day.

Merv's Weekly Index Table, 28 June 2008

Merv's Daily Commentary 25 June 2009

After The Close, 25 June 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 166.34
High: 172.63
Low: 163.83
Close: 168.68
Volume: 4727


Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

We had a reasonable upside day but in the end nothing has yet significantly changed from the short or intermediate term. One indicator to watch is the daily volume action. For an up day the volume was pathetic and not encouraging at all. Of course it just might be speculators taking time off with the various holidays that are on-going at the present. I guess we’ll just have to watch and wait and see how things develop.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 5.81 points or 3.45%. There were 30 winners, 12 losers and 8 going nowhere. The largest stocks were somewhat mixed. Cameco gained 5.1%, First Uranium lost 0.2%, Paladin gained 4.4%, Uranium One was confused and went nowhere and USEC gained 8.0%. The best winner of the day was Strateco with a gain of 13.9% while the loser of the day was Crosshair Exploration with a loss of 7.0%.

Nothing much has changed from the intermediate term, although things are getting pretty close. The Daily Index closed just below its moving average line. Because of the way the moving average is calculated we have a real strange and rare occurrence today. Although the moving average had been sloping slightly lower yesterday and the Index closed below the line today, still the moving average curled up and turned into the up side today. Rarely would the average line turn upwards before the Index closed above the line. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone and closed right on top of its still negative sloping trigger line. The volume indicator continues to move higher above its positive trigger line, although not that much above the line. The moving average turn up has caused the rating to change even though it is a rare turn-up. The intermediate term rating has been upgraded to a – NEUTRAL rating.

The short term has had a similar minor change but of not much concern. The Index closed below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The indicator did cross above its trigger line and today the trigger turned upwards. The daily volume action, as mentioned earlier, leaves a lot to be desired. I would like to see much more upside volume, holiday or no holiday. The up turning of the momentum indicator caused the rating to be slightly upgraded. The short term rating is now – NEUTRAL.

I guess I should jump on the band wagon and go with the up side as the direction of least resistance. However, I’ll just go another day with the lateral. One should watch the 180 level for an indication that this move may be more than a knee jerk bounce.

Boy, who said that celebrities’ deaths come in threes. We just had the third in only a few days. The moon walk will never be the same.